Predicting uncertain behavior of press unit in a paper industry using artificial bee colony and fuzzy Lambda-Tau methodology

As the industrial systems are growing complex these-days and data related to the system performance are recorded/collected from various resources under various practical constraints. If the collected data are used as such in the analysis, then they have high range of uncertainties occurred in the analysis and hence performance of the system cannot be done up to desired levels. Thus the main objective of the present work is to remove the uncertainties in the data up to a desired degree of accuracy by utilizing the uncertain, vague and limited data. For analysis of this, an artificial bee colony based Lambda–Tau (ABCBLT) methodology has been used in which expression of the reliability parameters are computed by using Lambda–Tau methodology and their membership functions are formulated by solving a nonlinear optimization problem with artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. A time varying failure rate has been used in the analysis instead of constant failure rate. A new RAM-Index has been proposed for ranking the systems’ components based on its performance. The technique has been demonstrated through a case study of press unit of a paper industry, situated in Northern part of India, producing 200 tons of paper per day. The results computed by the proposed approach are compared with the Lambda–Tau methodology and concluded that they have a reduced region of prediction in comparison of existing technique region, i.e. uncertainties involved in the analysis are reduced. Thus, it may be a more useful analysis tool to assess the current system conditions and involved uncertainties. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.